When people think about global warming, they tend to picture hotter summers, milder winters and the plight of polar bears. While some of this is, unfortunately, the reality, not all of it is true. In fact, as global warming gets worse, parts of the world could see fiercer, stormier winters.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) is warning, in fact, that a seasonally ice-free Arctic could lead to stronger storms and more precipitation in the winter. Scientists working for the USGS have discovered evidence that during the mid-Pliocene period the Nordic Sea and Arctic Ocean were too warm for summer sea ice. That period in time, over three million years ago, had temperatures similar to the temperatures that scientists are projecting for the end of this century.

The scientist who worked on the study said that the study of the mid-Pliocene period can also be used as an analog for what future conditions hold. The research the USGS has done on the mid-Pliocene period is the most comprehensive reconstruction of any warm period and should help to further refine current climate models that some scientists believe grossly underestimate the true rate of Arctic sea ice loss.

The USGS team analyzed fossils that dated back to the mid-Pliocene period in order to gather their information.

Marci Robinson, one of the USGS scientists said, “In looking back 3 million years, we see a very different pattern of heat distribution than today with much warmer waters in the high latitudes. The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could be an early warning of more significant changes to come.”

The consequences of the loss of sea ice include increased coastal erosion as a result of increased wave activity and impact on seal and polar bears who depend on the sea ice.