According to recent surveys conducted on two of the Arctic’s major caribou herds in the Canadian North, caribou may just be heading the same way as the northern cod, which suffered near extinction and resulted in the closing of the cod fishery in 1992. And with the drastic decline in the Arctic Caribou, aboriginals are having to rethink previous assumptions on the animals and how long it will be around.

Alfonz Nitsiza of Wha Ti, which is a small aboriginal community situated northwest of Yellowknife said, “The elders are saying that there is a cycle, that caribou go away somewhere but they come back. This time, the caribou may not come back.”

According to biologists, 15 or 23 worldwide herds of caribou are shrinking. And out of the 23, only 6 smaller herds are seeing an increase in numbers. Don Russel, head of the Circumarctic Rangifer Monitoring and Assessment network and former Canadian Wildlife Service biologist says that herds in the Canadian North West Territories are seeing the worst decline.

While concern has been growing for some time over the decline in caribou, it wasn’t until this summer that survey results of the animal indicated that there may be a catastrophe on the horizon.

N.W.T. biologists have estimated that the Bathurst’s herd, which has over 120,000 head in 2006, is now around 32,000, with a staggering loss of almost 90,000 animals in just three years. While this is devastating enough, things are worse for the Beverly herd, situated to the east. Survey teams couldn’t even spot enough pairs in order to get statistically valid data. The herd, which had 280,000 caribou just 15 years ago, appeared to be gone.

While caribou herds have always fluctuated, there are some new factors that are adding to the fluctuation and overall decline in the animal. Current research shows that climate change, aboriginal hunting and industrial development may have an impact on the caribou, preventing them from recovering their numbers.